Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 3.675902 4.297808 4.986523 5.804909 6.750005 7.806291 9.075535
2025-11-16 2.719290 3.558361 4.588995 5.943924 7.673957 9.804378 12.622055
2025-11-23 2.089295 3.003968 4.228481 5.978104 8.402881 11.632177 16.244631
2025-11-30 1.749728 2.724290 4.126970 6.275527 9.462336 13.988781 20.872993
2025-12-07 1.437164 2.401904 3.882392 6.293266 10.087696 15.787025 24.938002
2025-12-14 1.195009 2.129573 3.649144 6.263336 10.601249 17.447889 28.979643
2025-12-21 1.015653 1.919703 3.469421 6.271948 11.150183 19.200548 33.353271
2025-12-28 0.948579 1.888905 3.577761 6.768863 12.560670 22.496716 40.625634
2026-01-04 0.841875 1.763686 3.495878 6.910502 13.362231 24.849171 46.564004
2026-01-11 0.755114 1.659633 3.433292 7.071435 14.208584 27.362686 53.060256
2026-01-18 0.667622 1.537223 3.314119 7.101206 14.803216 29.475218 59.050612
2026-01-25 0.581365 1.400999 3.144502 7.001433 15.124205 31.099142 64.286994
2026-02-01 0.487036 1.231760 2.884670 6.687455 14.994914 31.886734 68.099830
2026-02-08 0.421855 1.117682 2.726315 6.568616 15.260228 33.500829 73.785510
2026-02-15 0.370418 1.026560 2.604267 6.510967 15.648277 35.411575 80.311683
2026-02-22 0.346684 1.000776 2.630438 6.798928 16.845151 39.168955 91.183333
2026-03-01 0.310207 0.933828 2.545207 6.805969 17.392883 41.572043 99.369312
2026-03-08 0.276339 0.866985 2.448783 6.769512 17.830283 43.774983 107.352864
2026-03-15 0.248739 0.812261 2.374477 6.777308 18.375196 46.283198 116.313152
2026-03-22 0.245196 0.828423 2.493372 7.311592 20.313607 52.279690 134.105782
2026-03-29 0.227073 0.795998 2.472346 7.463805 21.286794 56.062300 146.995061
2026-04-05 0.211373 0.768044 2.459491 7.636890 22.338100 60.152097 161.074845
2026-04-12 0.192819 0.726719 2.400438 7.668895 23.011699 63.367681 173.315461